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Trump predictions & odds

Fed Decision in October?

No change

91%

Yes91%No8%

25 bps increase

8%

Yes8%No91%

$58M Vol.

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

October 22

95%

Yes95%No3%

October 24

90%

Yes90%No9%

$23M Vol.

NATO x Russia military clash by...?

December 31

35%

Yes35%No63%

November 30

25%

Yes25%No73%

$10M Vol.

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

6%

chance

Yes

No

$24M Vol.

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

March 31

59%

Yes59%No40%

December 31

36%

Yes36%No62%

$42M Vol.

Fed Decision in December?

25 bps increase

71%

Yes71%No27%

No change

23%

Yes23%No75%

$4M Vol.

Trump out as President before 2027?

5%

chance

Yes

No

$13M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

December 31, 2027

70%

Yes70%No29%

November 30, 2027

66%

Yes66%No32%

$9M Vol.

Fed Decision in January?

No change

66%

Yes66%No32%

25 bps increase

29%

Yes29%No69%

$888K Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

17%

chance

Yes

No

$75M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

December 31, 2027

51%

Yes51%No48%

March 31, 2027

27%

Yes27%No72%

$3M Vol.

Reckon

Company

Reckon Markets Ltd.
100 Pine Street, Suite 1250
San Francisco, CA 94111
United States

Company No. BW-884921
VAT / Tax ID: US-94-7721840

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