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Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

Politics Vol. $7,431,522 148 traders

November 30, 202766%
July 31, 202753%
September 30, 202756%
June 30, 202753%
$7,431,522 Vol. Politics

Outcomes

18
Chance
May 31 Resolved
3%
June 30 Resolved
3%
October 31
12% ▼ 3
December 31
24% ▼ 2
August 31 Resolved
3%
March 31, 2027
38% ▼ 7
June 30, 2027
52% ▼ 2
April 30, 2027
42%
May 31, 2027
49%
July 31, 2027
54%
September 30, 2027
54%
August 31, 2027
54%
October 31, 2027
56%
December 31, 2027
66%
November 30, 2027
65%
January 31, 2027
31%
February 28, 2027
33%
November 30
18%

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This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.

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