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Next leader out of power before 2027?
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None before 2027
$285,191 Vol.
44%
2%
Netanyahu - Israel PM
$433,549 Vol.
39%
7%
Sánchez - Spanish PM
$66,844 Vol.
5%
3%
Lecornu - France PM
$47,907 Vol.
5%
Xi - General Secretary of the CCP
$71,490 Vol.
4%
2%
Merz - German Chancellor
$58,634 Vol.
3%
1%
Macron - France President
$60,539 Vol.
3%
Erdoğan - Türkiye President
$55,257 Vol.
3%
Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea
$82,193 Vol.
3%
Albanese - Australia PM
$51,195 Vol.
3%
Newsom - California Governor
$45,757 Vol.
3%
Milei - Argentina President
$54,057 Vol.
3%
Trump - USA President
$53,349 Vol.
3%
Zelenskyy - Ukraine President
$53,354 Vol.
3%
Putin - Russia President
$49,205 Vol.
3%
1%
Lula da Silva - Brazil President
$63,793 Vol.
3%
Takaichi - Japan PM
$48,505 Vol.
3%
Abbas - President of Palestine
$48,886 Vol.
3%
1%
Sheinbaum - Mexico President
$45,546 Vol.
3%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President
$53,041 Vol.
3%
1%
Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President
$50,000 Vol.
3%
al-Sharaa - Syria President
$41,841 Vol.
3%
Rules
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.
An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an indi... This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.
An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jun 30, 2026, 10:18 PM ET
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