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Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?
$810,621 Vol.Oct 31, 2026Reckon
Ken Paxton
$646,013 Vol.
96%
97%
Mark Carney
$4,654 Vol.
9%
3%
Joe Biden
$3,018 Vol.
96%
Barack Obama
$24,668 Vol.
96%
4%
Marjorie Taylor Greene
$9,165 Vol.
96%
43%
Jerome Powell
$2,179 Vol.
96%
40%
Nicolás Maduro
$1,010 Vol.
96%
Jimmy Kimmel
$8,615 Vol.
96%
84%
Kaitlan Collins
$6,631 Vol.
96%
17%
James Talarico
$631 Vol.
96%
Abdul El-Sayed
$1,715 Vol.
96%
7%
Kathy Hochul
$1,244 Vol.
96%
6%
Ilhan Omar
$5,768 Vol.
96%
37%
Letitia James
$356 Vol.
96%
26%
Jon Ossoff
$4,066 Vol.
96%
4%
Hillary Clinton
$6,226 Vol.
96%
64%
Elizabeth Warren
$2,325 Vol.
96%
45%
Gavin Newsom
$5,556 Vol.
96%
17%
Thomas Massie
$3,020 Vol.
96%
48%
Kamala Harris
$3,918 Vol.
96%
23%
Chuck Schumer
$5,792 Vol.
96%
59%
Hasan Piker
$3,546 Vol.
96%
54%
Tucker Carlson
$9,969 Vol.
3%
11%
Candace Owens
$9,328 Vol.
3%
Pope Leo XIV
$2,936 Vol.
3%
2%
Vladimir Putin
$1,917 Vol.
3%
1%
Benjamin Netanyahu
$2,743 Vol.
3%
4%
J.D. Vance
$3,175 Vol.
3%
1%
Xi Jinping
$704 Vol.
3%
1%
Andy Burnham
$1,872 Vol.
3%
3%
Elon Musk
$472 Vol.
3%
Zohran Mamdani
$7,814 Vol.
3%
4%
Emmanuel Macron
$2,518 Vol.
3%
4%
Friedrich Merz
$4,265 Vol.
3%
3%
Kevin Warsh
$2,214 Vol.
3%
2%
Stephen Colbert
$835 Vol.
3%
1%
J.B. Pritzker
$1,251 Vol.
3%
4%
Hakeem Jeffries
$6,735 Vol.
3%
8%
Masoud Pezeshkian
$420 Vol.
3%
1%
Mike Rogers
$1,005 Vol.
3%
5%
Dario Amodei
$333 Vol.
3%
1%
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults the listed individual between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A public statement is any written, verbal, or recorded statement which is either made in a public setting, published by the speaker, or on the record to media, and the direct language of which is made publicly available within the specified timeframe. Pre-recorded public statements will count for the date (ET) that they... This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults the listed individual between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A public statement is any written, verbal, or recorded statement which is either made in a public setting, published by the speaker, or on the record to media, and the direct language of which is made publicly available within the specified timeframe. Pre-recorded public statements will count for the date (ET) that they are made publicly available. Statements made in private that are subsequently leaked will not qualify, even if credibly reported. Narrations and paraphrasings do not qualify.
Images and videos posted on verified social media accounts will only qualify if they contain insulting language clearly directed at the individual, whether within the content itself or in an accompanying caption. Language within the content of a video will only qualify if Donald Trump is clearly portrayed as saying it. Insulting language within the content of a video said by anyone other than Donald Trump or a portrayal thereof will not qualify.
A quote post will qualify if added language independently qualifies as an insult, or endorses insulting language directed at the individual within the quoted post; a repost of another account's post will not qualify.
A public statement qualifies as an insult if it mocks, degrades, or disparages the individual either personally or professionally. This includes calling the individual a clearly insulting trait (e.g., weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure), using an insulting nickname (e.g., Crooked Hillary), using other clearly derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a clearly derogatory manner (e.g., “He isn’t smart”, “He has no judgment”). Disparaging the individual in their professional capacity will qualify (e.g., "He is a disaster candidate," "He is terrible at his job"); however, negative comments directed at the individual's specific actions, policies, or decisions will not qualify (e.g., "He has bad policies," "He is wrong about healthcare").
A statement made in direct reference to the individual will qualify even if they are not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
The resolution sources will be public statements made by Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Oct 1, 2026, 10:27 AM ET
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