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Iran Ceasefire predictions & odds

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

October 31

96%

Yes96%No3%

November 2

96%

Yes96%No3%

$41M Vol.

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

November 4

96%

Yes96%No3%

November 2

96%

Yes96%No3%

$46M Vol.

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

March 31

69%

Yes69%No30%

December 31

43%

Yes43%No55%

$48M Vol.

US-Iran effective ceasefire continues through...?

November 5

94%

Yes94%No4%

November 6

89%

Yes89%No9%

$512K Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

12%

chance

Yes

No

$17M Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

5%

chance

Yes

No

$1M Vol.

Iran full airspace closure by...?

December 31

23%

Yes23%No75%

November 30

15%

Yes15%No83%

$11M Vol.

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

December 31

6%

Yes6%No92%

$77M Vol.

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

December 31

8%

Yes8%No91%

November 30

4%

Yes4%No95%

$21M Vol.

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

December 31, 2026

42%

Yes42%No56%

November 30, 2026

26%

Yes26%No72%

$1M Vol.

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Kazem Gharibabadi

51%

Yes51%No47%

Steve Witkoff

39%

Yes39%No60%

$2M Vol.

Will Iran damage undersea internet cables by...?

December 31

12%

Yes12%No86%

$151K Vol.