← Markets
Russia nuclear test by...?
$6,251,174 Vol.Dec 31, 2026Reckon
November 30
$63,539 Vol.
3%
December 31
$46,947 Vol.
3%
March 31, 2026
$1,214,087 Vol.
3%
June 30, 2026
$4,627,753 Vol.
3%
September 30, 2026
$176,039 Vol.
3%
December 31, 2026
$122,808 Vol.
7%
1%
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explici... This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 1:16 PM ET
- No recent trades