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How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Economy Vol. $430,938 50 traders

$430,938 Vol.Dec 31, 2026Reckon
Below 4.9%
$40 Vol.
75%
Below 4.8%
$110 Vol.
60%
Below 4.7%
$20,799 Vol.
39% 14%
Below 4.6%
$32,833 Vol.
21% 7%
Below 4.5%
$21,166 Vol.
14% 5%
Below 4.4%
$25,732 Vol.
11% 5%
Below 4.3%
$8,081 Vol.
10% 5%
Below 4.2%
$7,024 Vol.
5% 2%
Below 4.1%
$12,605 Vol.
5%
Below 3.9%
$57,132 Vol.
5%
Below 3.8%
$65,256 Vol.
3%
Below 3.7%
$38,265 Vol.
3%
Below 3.6%
$12,534 Vol.
3% 1%
Below 3.5%
$43,698 Vol.
3%
Below 3.0%
$7,964 Vol.
3%
Below 2.0%
$5,113 Vol.
3%
Below 1.0%
$40,828 Vol.
3%
Below 4.0%
$31,759 Vol.
96%

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that...

Market Opened: Nov 12, 2025, 6:02 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025